Oh my God, I'm dead!

[muninnhuginn]

I was reading The Independent online this morning and the story about the increased prevalence of breast cancer. Skimming through the little paragraphs at the end of the article describing the various risk factors, I read the following:

Growing Alcohol Consumption

Drinking among women is increasing and the risk rises by 7 per cent for each drink consumed daily

So, even with my otherwise relatively low risks, I'm dead, or at least guaranteed breast cancer. I'm no statistician, true. But they don't really mean what they said there. And I know it. I just hope it hasn't freaked anyone out.

Comments

Liking to spell things out

[purpletigron.livejournal.com]

What a daft piece of reporting. I suppose that what they actually mean is, the risk rises by 7 percent for each unit of alcohol consumed as a daily habit? And I bet that the first unit doesn't work that way, either. So maybe if you drink 3 units of alcohol per day, every day, every week, you have a 21% extra risk?

Re: Liking to spell things out

[muninnhuginn]

Who knows? I interpreted it in a similar manner to you, but with the information there it's hard to guess what's true.

It is, as you say, daft. And sloppy.

Re: Liking to spell things out

[purplecthulhu.livejournal.com]

Of course even if they're right they're only looking at breast cancer rates not at overall mortality levels. If you factor in the beneficial effects of alcohol on heart disease, for example, or of certain kinds of alcohol, eg. red wine, on other cancers, you might well have a better life expectancy even with drinking at your current levels...

And this is assuming that the basic work is correct. A 7% risk increase is not an easy thing to measure!

Re: Liking to spell things out

[muninnhuginn]

"drinking at your current levels..."

I'm banking on my wormwood consumption sorting it all out ;-)

Re: Liking to spell things out

[purplecthulhu.livejournal.com]

... but perhaps not in the way you'd like...

Re: Liking to spell things out

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

That's how I'd interpret it.

(And I'm not sure how the intake could be 'daily' if not taken every day.)

Re: Liking to spell things out

[purpletigron.livejournal.com]

It could be roughly interpreted as 'day-to-day', or a running total.

Re: Liking to spell things out

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

A running total?

I don't think I've ever noticed 'daily' meaning that before.

Re: Liking to spell things out

[purpletigron.livejournal.com]

It sounds colloquially plausible in my ideolect. Wrong! but plausible nonetheless.

Re: Liking to spell things out

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

Now that's the problem with language. The meaning of what anyone says is the result of a constant process of negotiation between speakers and listeners, and those negotiations are (a) unspoken, and (b) ambiguous.

Re: Liking to spell things out

[muninnhuginn]

Which rather goes to the heart of my annoyance with the statement. [pauses to get the speech recognition stuff going] There could have been a perfectly clear sentence indicating the average number of units of alcohol that, if consumed every day, caused a rise of whatever per cent. I somehow seem to expect more clarity than that from your average broadsheet. Silly me :-
(

And yes, treatments are getting better. It's good to hear your friends are doing well.

Woolley writing like this isn't going to stop me having my wormwood-laden drink later on this evening.

[armb.livejournal.com]

I think what they said there is that if you consume 15 units of alcohol daily, you are guaranteed breast cancer.
On the one hand I don't believe it's a simple linear addition like that all the way to 100%, but on the other hand I don't believe you are drinking that much.

[muninnhuginn]

No, The Indy said exactly what I quoted: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article1771835.ece (I didn't put the link in 'cos it'll be dead in a couple of days0>

Someone, somewhere may have stated a useful measure (pint, half pint, dram...) of increased risk The Indy didn't.

"...on the other hand I don't believe you are drinking that much."

Ooh, just mildly pickled. Occasionally stocious ;-)

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

I think they mean that the risk rises by 100%. Or, in other words, that it doubles. Otherwise:

Hormone Replacement Therapy

Increases the risk by 66 per cent among current users compared with those who have never taken it. Use of HRT rose rapidly in the 1980s but has fallen sharply in recent years

HRT users would be dying like flies.

For what it's worth, two friends have been diagnosed with breast cancer in the last 18 months. Both are fine, to the best of my knowledge.

[deannahoak.livejournal.com]

Ugh. I hate it when people say stupid things like that. :-P

[muninnhuginn]

Precisely. And someone, somewhere (ah, that's today's phrase: I've used it twice in the space of two comments) might accept it, since it quotes an apparently precise figure and it's in a respected broadsheet.

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

Now, if there wasn't that word 'daily' on the end, that'd be scary. But heavy drinkers are more prone to cancer, so I can see 14 units per day doubling the possibility of getting this cancer.

Breast cancer is not, happily for the two friends who've had it in the last 18 months, a death sentence. Both have completed treatment, both expect to live quite a bit longer yet.